15.06.202114:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on June 15 (analysis of morning trades).

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the levels from which it was possible to enter the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened in the end. A small increase in the first half of the day and a resistance test of 1.4128 returned sellers to the market. But given that I did not wait for a false breakout in this area, I did not enter short positions. A major break in the support of 1.4097 did not lead to a reverse test of this level. Purchases on the rebound from the support of 1.4070 led only to a slight increase in the pound by 13 points, after which the market continued its decline. The emphasis in the afternoon is now placed on completely different levels.

Exchange Rates 15.06.2021 analysis

Good data on the UK labor market did not allow the bulls to break above the resistance of 1.4128. However, the sellers did not put off their "dirty work", once again returning to the test of the lower limit of the side channel, going beyond which will be a sad ending for buyers. At the time of writing, the bulls have already missed the minimum of 1.4070, which led to an instant fall of the pair to the support area of 1.4041. Given that there are no active actions on the part of buyers, it is best not to rush to open long positions. If the trading day closes below the level of 1.4070 – it will be a strong bearish signal. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.4041 forms an entry point to long positions in the expectation of a recovery in the resistance area of 1.4070. A break and a test of this level from the top down after weak data on retail sales in the US form an additional signal to open long positions with a recovery to the level of 1.4097 and 1.4128, where I recommend taking the profits. If the bulls again do not show any activity in the support area of 1.4041, it is best to abandon purchases before the test of the next low of 1.4008, where you can buy the pair immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

The pressure on the pound is quite high, and the breakdown of the support of 1.4070 and any lack of interest from buyers tells us that there is a void below and the focus will now be only on the large daily supports mentioned above. The main task of sellers, in the event of a correction of the pound after the US retail sales data, will be the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.4070, which will form a good entry point into short positions in the continuation of the bear market. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of the support of 1.4041 will lead to the formation of a good signal to open short positions with an exit to the minimum of 1.4008, where I recommend taking the profit. A more distant target will be the support of 1.3921. In the scenario of the pound's growth in the second half of the day and the absence of bear activity in the area of 1.4070, it is best to postpone sales until the resistance test of 1.4070 or open short positions immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.4128 in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

Exchange Rates 15.06.2021 analysis

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for June 8, a reduction in both long and short positions was recorded. However, this did not affect the positive delta negatively, but on the contrary, it even increased due to a larger reduction in the positions of sellers. It indicates the presence of a sufficiently large interest of buyers with each decline in the pound. The same type of statements by representatives of the Bank of England no longer work, and the market reacts rather weakly even to the speeches of Governor Andrew Bailey. Without real changes and adjustments to the bond-buying program by the central bank, it will be quite difficult for the British pound to get out of the side channel in which it has been for almost one month. An important point will be the full opening of the UK economy, which is scheduled for the 20th of this month. The spread of the Indian strain of coronavirus in the territory creates several obstacles to this, which affects the desire of investors to buy the British pound. The optimal scenario is to buy at every good decline in the British pound against the US dollar. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions fell from the level of 64,204 to the level of 59,238, while short non-profit positions fell much more strongly from the level of 40,079 to the level of 31,524. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased from the level of 24,125 to the level of 27,714. The closing price of last week changed significantly and amounted to 1.41757 against 1.42270.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates that the pressure on the pound remains.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of growth, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.4070 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

*Analisis pasar yang diposting disini dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan Anda namun tidak untuk memberi instruksi trading.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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